How High Will It Go on the Billboard 200?

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated June 14, we look at a handful of albums likely to impact the top tier of the chart – a couple brand new, and a couple recently revitalized, led by a likely rebound from the biggest pop star in the world.  

Taylor Swift, Reputation (Big Machine): On a day of big new releases, last Friday (May 30) was still dominated by the news that Taylor Swift had officially acquired her own masters. Billboard reported from sources that she paid around $360 million for the acquisition from private equity firm Shamrock Capital, which had acquired the catalog in late 2020 from Scooter Braun’s Ithaca Holdings, after Braun had bought Swift’s old label Big Machine the year before. Braun’s initial purchase, and Swift’s negative reaction to her professional adversary having such a big stake in her history, had of course inspired the entire Taylor’s Version project — which led to Swift re-recording four of her first six albums over the course of 2021-2023, along with a number of period-appropriate rarities. That endeavor not only proved wildly successful for Swift, but played a major part in her 2020s ascension to a level of solo superstardom not seen before this century.  

One of the two Big Machine-era albums she had yet to get to with her Taylor’s Version series was Reputation, the divisive 2017 album that followed both her ultimate pop breakthrough with 2014’s 1989 and the backlash that ensued, particularly after her back-and-forth feuding with Kanye West and Kim Kardashian. Along with the announcement of the acquisition of her masters, Swift also revealed that Reputation (Taylor’s Version) had been the most challenging of the series for her to put together, as she found it difficult to get back into the headspace of that album era — and thus had not even finished re-recording a quarter of it. Fans could infer from her letter that now that Swift’s back catalog was once again her own, she would be unlikely to finish re-recording the rest of it anytime soon. 

But while some fans may have been disappointed that they would not get the full Reputation (Taylor’s Version) package anytime soon — which was so long-anticipated that the original album got a consumption bump a couple weeks ago merely based on rumors that she might reveal something about it on the AMAs — most were ready to revisit the original album anyway. With no re-recording imminent, and Swift once again the owner of her back catalog, fans flocked to the original Reputation, resulting in it leaping to the top of the iTunes albums chart, and launching five of its tracks back onto the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart for Saturday (May 31).  

The major bump in sales and streams, for an album that was still ranking at No. 78 on the Billboard 200 in its 349th week on the chart, could see the album make a major rebound next week. It’s unlikely to supplant Morgan Wallen’s I’m the Problem — but no album is, as Problem posted 286,000 units this week (according to Luminate) in its second week atop the chart, and is likely to still be comfortably in the six figures in its third week, thanks to the 37-track set’s gargantuan streaming numbers. But it could get as high as the top five, maybe even to the runner-up spot, if fan enthusiasm maintains the further we get away from Swift’s Friday announcement. (Swift could also perhaps give sales a boost if she made the album available for sale on her webstore — as of publishing, it was still not listed there.) 

Miley Cyrus, Something Beautiful (Columbia): Perhaps Swift’s main competition for the biggest chart-crasher this week is her old Hannah Montana: The Movie co-star Miley Cyrus. The veteran pop superstar returned on Friday with her new LP Something Beautiful, the audio part of a visual album project whose film accompaniment is set to premiere at the Tribeca Film Festival this Friday (June 6). 

Something Beautiful follows 2023’s Endless Summer Vacation, and its galactically successful lead single “Flowers,” which became the biggest chart hit of Cyrus’ career and won her her first two Grammys. So far, none of the advance releases from Something Beautiful appear to be on anywhere near a “Flowers” trajectory, however — the only one of them to even reach the Billboard Hot 100 so far was official lead single “End of the World,” which debuted at No. 52 and fell off the chart after just four weeks.  

While Something Beautiful is unlikely to be an immediate streaming blockbuster — as of midweek, none of its tracks appear on either the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA or the Apple Music real-time charts — it should sell relatively well. To help with that, the album is available in six different vinyl variants (including an artist webstore-exclusive signed version), as well as standard and signed CDs and two deluxe branded boxed sets with the CD and branded merch. At the very least, the set should extend Miley’s streak of top five albums on the Billboard 200 — which encompasses every one of her official studio releases dating back to 2007’s Meet Miley Cyrus, excepting 2015’s Miley Cyrus & Dead Petz, which was not initially given a commercial release.  

SEVENTEEN, SEVENTEEN 5th Album ‘Happy Burstday’ (Pledis/YG Plus): Also aiming for the top five next week is an act with less stateside household-name recognition as Swift and Cyrus, but nearly as much of a presence on the albums chart. SEVENTEEN has reached the Billboard 200’s top 10 six times already in the 2020s, and even gotten as high as No. 2 with two 2023 releases, the EP FML and the mini-album Seventeenth Heaven.  

The 13-member group is likely to return to the top 10 next week with its fifth full-length album, Happy Burstday — a 16-track effort that includes contributions from two of the biggest U.S. hitmakers of the early 21st-century in Pharrell and Timbaland. While SEVENTEEN has never been a major force on streaming in the U.S., the group are reliable high-sellers, and Burstday is available for purchase in a whopping 14 CD variants — all of which contain collectible branded paper ephemera, some of which is randomized. It should be enough for Burstday to be a real contender for the Billboard 200’s runner-up spot, along with the Swift and Cyrus sets.